Data-Driven IDP Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 17 -- Best Matchups and Best Starts
Start these LBs, DLs, and DBs to win your fantasy championship! See the data and reasons...
I have updated my IDP rankings this week to account for the strengths of opposing offenses and how frequently opposing teams throw interceptions and allow sacks. My IDP Rankings 2.0 will now assign higher projections to defensive linemen facing weak offensive lines and defensive backs facing interception-prone passers.
So which teams have the best matchups?
Best IDP Matchups for Week 17
Kansas City Chiefs defensive players have the best matchup of the week against the Denver Broncos, the worst scoring offense. It is true that many of the Broncos’ drives will end quickly, so Chiefs LB Nick Bolton probably won’t lead the weekend in tackles, but many of the Broncos’ drives will end quickly due to interceptions and sacks. Bolton is has about a 25% chance of making an interception. In the last Chiefs-Broncos matchup, fellow LB Willie Gay made a pick, as did CB L'Jarius Sneed.
Lions DL vs Bears Offense
The Bears have allowed the most sacks this season. Fields was sacked eight times in the past two games. Lions DE Aidan Hutchinson made 1.0 sack and eight tackles last time he faced Detroit.
Teams to Fade: Denver Broncos
The Chiefs run a lot of plays, so Broncos LBs Josey Jewell and Alex Singleton could still be started in leagues that use tackle-heavy formats. But don’t expect them to make many sacks. And, while Patrick Mahomes did treat the ball carelessly last time he faced the Broncos, resulting in three interceptions, he has only thrown 11 interceptions on the season.
IDP Flex Rankings
Ravens LB Roquan Smith lead all IDP in scoring (in both IDP123 and Rotoballer Standard formats). (Read about Rotoballer IDP Standard scoring here. It’s the system I came up with.)
A few notes on some interesting and rising players:
Week 17 Breakout: Falcons LB Troy Andersen
Andersen took over Mykal Walker on the Falcons’ depth chart and started the past two games. In those games, he’s made 11 combined tackles and a forced fumble. Those games were against New Orleans and Baltimore, both slower offenses. Now the Falcons have a tilt against the fast-paced Cardinals. This should provide Troy Andersen (~85% snaps) the opportunity for a breakout, and Rashaan Evans (~98% of snaps) should have a good game as usual. Walker is down to 20% or fewer snaps.
Best Chances to Make an Interception
You shouldn’t lean too heavily on interceptions, as they as so unpredictable, but if you start a safety who can make 4-5 solo tackles and a possible pick, like Justin Simmons or Talanoa Hufanga, you have a good play. The Raiders benched David Carr and are starting Jarrett Stidham, a third-year QB who has thrown an interception on 6.6% of the passes in his career.
You might be surprised to see a Bills safety Jordan Poyer here when he is facing Bengals QB Joe Burrow, but Burrow has thrown interceptions in each of his past three games.
That’s all for today. Go out there and win your league!
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